The demand for energy all over the world is increasing extremely fast. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the world economy will be four times larger by 2050 and the energy demand will almost double. Since 60-70% of all energy usage is expected to be in the form of electricity, a huge increase in electricity production is anticipated.
In India, electricity production has increased by 300% in the last 20 years. Even then, 30% of the households do not have access to electricity. To provide everyone access to electricity and to meet the increasing demands of an expanding economy, electricity production will have to increase at a rapid rate in the future also. According to International Energy Agency, it will increase by 300-600% by 2050.
This raises a lot of questions such as, Do we have the necessary resources?, Do we have the necessary technology?, Is it sustainable? and What are the environmental implications?
The existing centralized power generation based on fossil or nuclear fuels or major dams has failed to meet the basic electricity needs of most of the country's rural population and is also proving to be costly to the society from economic, social, health and environmental angles.
Therefore, renewable energy sources are likely to be a major component of future energy production in India. Some of these sources with the generation potential in parentheses are wind energy (45,000 MW), small hydro (15,000 MW), solar (essentially unlimited) and ocean wave (potentially huge, but no estimates are available).
In addition to centralized power generation, decentralized power generation must also be emphasized in any future electricity policy. Some decentralized power options are:
1. Rooftop solar photo-voltaic systems which can meet most of the smaller local loads, including domestic needs. Power left after meeting these needs can be exported to the grid.
2. Solar water heaters to provide hot water for houses, nursing homes, hotels, hostels, industries etc. at very economical prices.
3. In places with good average wind speed, wind turbines can provide very cheap power locally.
1. Rooftop solar photo-voltaic systems which can meet most of the smaller local loads, including domestic needs. Power left after meeting these needs can be exported to the grid.
2. Solar water heaters to provide hot water for houses, nursing homes, hotels, hostels, industries etc. at very economical prices.
3. In places with good average wind speed, wind turbines can provide very cheap power locally.
Such decentralised power systems can meet most of the rural loads when they are used in hybrid mode and can provide many other long-term benefits such as minimum transmission losses, local employment opportunities and rural development.
Taking all these issues into account, electricity production in India in the future is likely to consist of:
* a large number of small (rooftop and community-based) power sources,
* some medium/large size renewable power sources (solar, wind, etc.),
* few conventional energy sources,
* higher focus on cutting distribution losses, and
* higher focus on power conservation.
Shankar Sharma
(The author is a power policy analyst and can be contacted at 94482 72503.)
* a large number of small (rooftop and community-based) power sources,
* some medium/large size renewable power sources (solar, wind, etc.),
* few conventional energy sources,
* higher focus on cutting distribution losses, and
* higher focus on power conservation.
Shankar Sharma
(The author is a power policy analyst and can be contacted at 94482 72503.)